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    This page provides forecasts of monthly inflation rates, as measured by the year over year percent change in standard headline CPI, i.e. the consumer price index for all urban consumers (CPI-U).


    Our Consensus Inflation Forecast is a model that measures the average expected inflation rate. It is derived using bond market data (utilizing the spread between Treasury Inflation Protected Securities and Treasury yields) as well as from household survey data. For each point in the forward term structure, our model derives the mean market-expected inflation rate. The term structure is interpolated and smoothed using a three-factor parametrization model, generating the final forecast.

    The model is updated monthly, generally on the next business day following the release of CPI inflation data. The CPI release schedule can be found here.


    Recommended citation for the Consensus Inflation Model :
    econforecasting.com (2023). Consensus Inflation Model. Retrieved from https://econforecasting.com/forecast-cpi.