AMERIBOR OVERNIGHT RATE - FORECAST CHART

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    VARIABLE DESCRIPTION

    This page provides monthly data & forecasts of the overnight AMERIBOR rate, a U.S. interbank lending rate published by the American Financial Exchange (AFX). Unlike SOFR, AMERIBOR reflects the unsecured rate with no collateral backing, and tends to be more reflective of borrowing costs of regional and mid-sized banks.

    Historical data and forecasted values on this page reflect monthly averages of daily values.

    PRIMARY FORECAST MODEL

    Our market consensus forecast is a daily-updated forecast of key benchmark interest rates. It is generated primarily using yield data and futures market prices, using minimal theoretical assumptions. Forecasts from the model can be interpreted as the median expectation of market participants.

    The AMERIBOR component of the forecast reflects overnight rates and is extracted from AMERIBOR futures with 30 and 90-day tenors and a model derived term premium. See the riskless rate extraction process in the model documentation for details.

    While the model prioritizes consistency with market expectations over forecast accuracy, its forecast accuracy has historically exceeded that of survey and agency-based forecasts due to its higher update frequency and timeliness.

    The model is updated daily between 9:30-10:00 ET (13:30/14:30 UTC) with the prior day's data. This uses the prior day's futures prices, generally at a 3pm ET settlement time.