Our market consensus forecast is a daily-updated forecast of key benchmark interest rates. It is generated primarily using yield data and futures market prices, using minimal theoretical assumptions. Forecasts from the model can be interpreted as the median expectation of market participants.
The AMERIBOR component of the forecast reflects overnight rates and is extracted from modeling a term spread above the SOFR futures forecast. See the riskless rate extraction process in the model documentation for details.
While the model prioritizes consistency with market expectations, its forecast accuracy has historically exceeded that of survey and agency-based forecasts due to its higher update frequency and timeliness.
Updates post daily at 9:35 ET, using prior-day settlement data.