This page provides monthly data & forecasts of the U.S. inflation rate, as measured by the year-over-year change in the CPI-U.

Our consensus inflation forecast is a daily-updated forecast based primarily on market data. It is generated by taking a ensemble of (a) a forecast derived from the TIPS - Treasury par spread, CPI inflation data, and inflation swaps; and (b) the Cleveland Fed's Inflation Expectations Model. Forecasts from the model can be interpreted as the median expectation of market participants.

The model is updated daily between 6:00-6:30 ET (10:00/10:30 UTC). Large changes in forecast may occur on the day immediately following CPI release dates.

Other forecasts included on this page:

1. The U.S. Congressional Budget Office's 10-Year Economic Projections
2. Fannie Mae's Economic & Housing Outlook
3. The Philadelphia Federal Reserve's Survey of Professional Forecasters
4. The Wall Street Journal Economic Forecasting Survey (quarterly-interpolated)
5. The Conference Board's US Economic Outlook
6. The Cleveland Fed's Inflation Expectations Model (monthly-interpolated)
7. Wells Fargo's U.S. Economic Outlook