Our consensus inflation forecast is a daily-updated forecast based primarily on market data. It is generated by taking a ensemble of (a) a forecast derived from the TIPS - Treasury par spread, CPI inflation data, and inflation swaps; and (b) the Cleveland Fed's Inflation Expectations Model. Forecasts from the model can be interpreted as the median expectation of market participants.
The model is updated daily between 6:00-6:30 ET (10:00/10:30 UTC). Large changes in forecast may occur on the day immediately following CPI release dates.