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    This page provides monthly data & forecasts of the U.S. federal funds rate, the short-term interbank lending rate for cash held at the Federal Reserve. The federal funds rate is a critical benchmark rate in the global economy, and is the primary rate targeted by the Federal Reserve in monetary policy interventions. It is considered a risk-free rate and is frequently used as a proxy of the riskless cost of borrowing in the U.S. economy.

    Historical data and forecasted values on this page reflect monthly averages of daily values.


    Our market consensus forecast is a daily-updated forecast of key benchmark interest rates. It is generated primarily using yield data and futures market prices, using minimal econometric assumptions. Forecasts from the model can be interpreted as the median expectation of market participants.

    The federal funds rate component of the forecast is directly extracted from futures market prices with a model derived term premium. See the model documentation for details.

    While the model prioritizes consistency with market expectations over forecast accuracy, its forecast accuracy has historically exceeded that of survey and agency-based forecasts due to its higher update frequency and timeliness. Prior forecast values are available below.

    The model is updated daily between 9:30-10:00 ET (13:30/14:30 UTC) with the prior day's data. This uses the prior day's futures prices, generally at a 3pm ET settlement time.


    Other forecasts included on this page:

    1. The U.S. Congressional Budget Office's 10-Year Economic Projections
    2. Fannie Mae's Economic & Housing Outlook
    3. The Conference Board's US Economic Outlook
    4. The Wall Street Journal Economic Forecasting Survey (quarterly-interpolated)
    5. Wells Fargo's U.S. Economic Outlook