This page provides monthly forecasts of the federal funds rate, the short-term lending rate between different banks of cash held at the Federal Reserve. The federal funds rate is a critical benchmark rate in the global economy, and is the primary rate considered by the Federal Reserve when deciding monetary policy.

Both historical data and forecasted values on this page reflect period average values.

Our Market Consensus Forecast for the federal funds rate rate (FFR) is generated utilizing data on publicly-traded FFR futures and other closely related benchmark interest rates. Using this information, we construct a forward term structure for the full yield curve. The term structure is interpolated and smoothed using a three-factor parametrization model, generating the final forecast.

This forecast can be interpreted as the mean market-expected values of future FFR values.

This model is updated daily around 10:30 ET (14:30/15:30 UTC) on market days.