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    This page provides quarterly forecasts of U.S. real GDP. All historical and forecasted values represent seasonally adjusted annualized rates.

    Forecast Models

    Our Composite Forecast Model is a model of models, optimally finding weights between different qualitative and quantitative forecasts to generate a single composite forecast.

    Assigned weights are time-varying and depend on the remaining time until the official data release. For example, high-frequency nowcast models tend to perform better for short-term forecasts, while qualitative forecasts tend to be better predictors for long-term forecasts; our model combines these forecasts using a locally linear random forest method to optimize the strengths of each forecast.

    This model is updated daily. New releases will be made available between 16:00 and 20:00 ET.

    Recommended citation for the Composite Forecast Model :
    econforecasting.com (2023). Composite Forecast Model . Retrieved from https://econforecasting.com/forecast-gdp.