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    This page provides monthly forecasts of 15 and 30-year fixed rate mortgage rates in the United States. Historical data is sourced from Freddie Mac.

    Both historical data and forecasted values on this page reflect period average values.


    Our Market Consensus Forecast for the 15 and 30 year fixed rate mortgage rates are derived from combining our Market Consensus Forecast for Treasury yields with survey-based forecasts for housing prices.

    First, using historical data, we calculate historical mortgage-Treasury yield spreads; a model is then used to calculate the relationship between these spreads and housing prices. We then use survey-based economist forecasts of housing prices to estimate future mortgage-Treasury yield spreads, and add these to our Market Consensus Forecasts for Treasury yields to arrive at our final estimate.

    This model is updated daily around 10:30 ET (14:30/15:30 UTC) on market days.


    Recommended citation for the Consensus Interest Rate Forecast Model :
    econforecasting.com (2023). Consensus Interest Rate Forecast Model. Retrieved from https://econforecasting.com/forecast-mort15y.