Our Market Consensus Forecast for the 15 and 30 year fixed rate mortgage rates are derived from combining our Market Consensus Forecast for Treasury yields with survey-based forecasts for housing prices.
First, using historical data, we calculate historical mortgage-Treasury yield spreads; a model is then used to calculate the relationship between these spreads and housing prices. We then use survey-based economist forecasts of housing prices to estimate future mortgage-Treasury yield spreads, and add these to our Market Consensus Forecasts for Treasury yields to arrive at our final estimate.
This model is updated daily around 10:30 ET (14:30/15:30 UTC) on market days.