This page provides monthly forecasts of the Sterling Overnight Interbank Average Rate (SONIA), a measure of overnight lending rates between banks using British sterling. SONIA is administered by the Bank of England and is frequently used as a standardized measure of risk-free interest rates by U.K. authorities.

Both historical data and forecasted values on this page reflect period average values.

Our Market Consensus Forecast for the SONIA rate is generated utilizing data on publicly-traded SONIA futures and other closely related benchmark interest rates. Using this information, we construct a forward term structure for the full yield curve. The term structure is interpolated and smoothed using a three-factor parametrization model, generating the final forecast.

This forecast can be interpreted as the mean market-expected values of future SONIA values.

This model is updated daily around 10:30 ET (14:30/15:30 UTC) on market days.