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    This page provides monthly forecasts of U.S. Treasury bond yields. With over $20 trillion outstanding, Treasury bonds constitute nearly 15% of the global bond market and are the premier safe assets in many financial markets across the world. Because of this, they are also often utilized as a benchmark measure of the riskless interest rate in the world economy.

    Both historical data and forecasted values on this page reflect period average values.

    Forecast Models

    Our Market Consensus Forecast is a model that calculates the average "market expected" forecast of U.S. Treasury yield rates.

    It is derived using current Treasury bond market data as well as futures market data. In particular, we forecast seperately:

    • The risk-free rate, using federal funds rate futures;
    • The spread of the Treasury yield curve above the risk-free rate; further decomposed into a term premia factor (estimated using the Treasury futures market) and an expectations component (estimated using the current Treasury yield curve).

    We then combine these forecasts and smooth them using a 3-factor parametrization model, generating the final forecast. The forecast can be considered an approximation of the market-average expected yield.

    This model is updated daily around 10:30 ET (14:30/15:30 UTC) on market days.

    Other included forecasts on this page are from external sources:

    Recommended citation for the Consensus Interest Rate Forecast Model :
    econforecasting.com (2023). Consensus Interest Rate Forecast Model. Retrieved from https://econforecasting.com/forecast-t01y.