This page provides daily-updated data & forecasts of the 2-year real Treasury yield, i.e. the 2-year Treasury yield minus investors' annualized inflation expectations for the subsequent 2 years.
It can serve as an approximation for the 2-year Treasury-Inflation Protected Securities (TIPS) yield, which doesn't exist.
Increases in real yields reflect changes in the standard (nominal) Treasury bond yield or changes in inflation expectations. A rise in the 20-year real yield can be due to either a rise in the 20-year standard Treasury bond yield, or a decline in investors' expected inflation for the subsequent 20 years.
Since the Treasury yield is generally considered risk-free, the real Treasury yield can also be interpreted as the minimum risk-free real rate of return. For example, if the 1-year real yield is 1%, all alternative investments with a 1-year return horizon should return at least 1% or more on an inflation-adjusted basis to perform as well as the "riskless" return.
The market consensus forecast is a forecast calibrated to represent the median expectation of market participants. It is calculated as the simple difference between two component forecasts:
- A nominal 2-year yield forecast (calculated from futures prices, Treasury yields, and survey data)
- An expected inflation forecast (calculated from TIPS-Treasury spreads, CPI data, and zero-coupon inflation swaps)
The model is updated daily between 9:30-10:00 ET (13:30/14:30 UTC).