Our market consensus forecast is a daily-updated forecast of key benchmark interest rates. It is generated primarily using yield data and futures market prices, using minimal theoretical assumptions. Forecasts from the model can be interpreted as the median expectation of market participants.
The mortgage rate component of the forecast is generated using twp separate component forecasts:
- a Treasury yield forecast of equivalent duration extracted from futures markets and the yield curve (see documentation;
- a mortgage credit spread (consisting of prepayment risk and an option-adjusted spread reflecting mortgage demand) projected using the yield curve shape and survey-based consensus housing forecasts as inputs.
The model is updated daily between 9:30-10:00 ET (13:30/14:30 UTC) with the prior day's yields and futures prices; and weekly mortgage data from the Freddie Mac PMMS.